Analyst Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Sales for 2025

Game Analyst Predicts Strong, but Not Top, US Sales for Nintendo Switch 2 in 2025

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts US sales of approximately 4.3 million units for the Nintendo Switch 2 in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This projection represents roughly one-third of the total US console market (excluding handheld PCs). While this is a significant number – mirroring the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017 – Piscatella anticipates the PlayStation 5 will retain its top spot in US console sales.

The analyst's prediction acknowledges the considerable buzz surrounding the Switch 2, frequently trending on social media. However, he cautions that hype alone doesn't guarantee sales success. Critical factors influencing the Switch 2's performance include its launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game lineup. A pre-summer launch, potentially timed for Japan's Golden Week, could significantly boost sales.

Piscatella also anticipates potential supply chain challenges for the Switch 2, mirroring the initial shortages experienced with the original Switch and the PlayStation 5. Whether Nintendo has proactively addressed this remains to be seen. The anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2025 could further bolster PlayStation 5 sales, posing a challenge to the Switch 2's dominance.

Ultimately, the Switch 2's success hinges on a compelling combination of strong hardware, a robust launch title selection, and effective supply chain management. While the forecast suggests healthy sales, the PlayStation 5 is expected to maintain its leading position in the US market.

Analyst's Tweet: "Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables)." — Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z