Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Gaming market analyst DFC Intelligence forecasts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This impressive prediction surpasses all competitors, making the Switch 2 the "clear winner," according to their 2024 Video Game Market Report. Let's delve into the details of this forecast.

Dominating the Market by 2028: 80 Million Units Projected

DFC Intelligence's report, released December 17th, positions Nintendo as the console market leader, leaving Microsoft and Sony behind. This prediction stems from the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and limited initial competition. The report projects sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, escalating to over 80 million by 2028. The high demand might even challenge Nintendo's manufacturing capacity.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring a surprise release in 2026) positions it for sustained market leadership. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, possibly a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.

Nintendo's success is further underscored by the Switch surpassing the PlayStation 2's lifetime US sales. Circana (formerly NPD) analyst Mat Piscatella announced on BlueSky that the Switch, with 46.6 million units sold, is now the second best-selling console in US history, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable, even considering a reported 3% decrease in Switch sales this year.

A Resurgent Gaming Industry

DFC Intelligence paints a positive picture for the gaming industry, projecting strong growth after a recent slump. David Cole, DFC Intelligence's CEO, states that the industry, having grown 20x over the past three decades, is set for a healthy resurgence by the end of the decade, starting in 2025. This resurgence is fueled by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, expected to boost consumer spending.

The gaming audience is also expected to expand, exceeding 4 billion players by 2027. The rise of "high-end gaming-on-the-go," esports, and gaming influencers contributes to increased hardware purchases across PC and consoles.